Australia is confronting a deepening demographic challenge, as fertility rates have dropped to a record low of 1.5 births per woman—far beneath the roughly 2.1 births required to sustain the population through natural growth.

New research from the e61 Institute reveals that the decline is driven primarily by existing parents choosing to have fewer children, rather than by a growing share of women foregoing motherhood entirely.

Between 2006 and 2021, census data indicate that nearly two-thirds of the fertility decline stemmed from reductions in family size, while a third was due to increasing childlessness.

Among women aged 50 to 54, the childlessness rate rose from 13 percent to 16 percent over that period, while the average number of children per mother in that age group fell from 2.53 to 2.39.

The research also finds that Australians are delaying parenthood, with many waiting until their early 30s to have children.

Key impediments include soaring child-rearing costs, housing challenges, career considerations, and limited access to affordable, high-quality childcare—pressures felt especially by younger women.

According to Pelin Akyol, Research Manager at the e61 Institute, “there is no silver bullet solution to Australia’s record-low fertility.

Financial incentives can help, but they cannot fully reverse broader demographic trends”.

She argues that policies must both support fertility and preserve opportunities for workforce participation.

Dr Bob Birrell, President of the Australian Population Research Institute, warned that the nation risks failing its ability to reproduce itself.

He criticised the lack of serious government efforts to address structural obstacles—such as housing scarcity and inflated housing costs—that discourage couples from having children.

While Australia has welcomed about 1.2 million international migrants over the past three years, Birrell said reliance on migration to sustain population growth is viewed by many as a failure of domestic policy.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed the gravity of the downturn: in 2023, only 286,998 births were registered across the country, leading to the 1.50 total fertility rate—the lowest on record.

All states and territories, except Tasmania, saw fertility decline.

Among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women, fertility was higher at 2.17 births per woman, underscoring demographic variation within the population.

Observers and demographers note that once fertility falls this low, it becomes exceedingly difficult to reverse.

Australia’s policymakers now face mounting pressure to devise holistic strategies to restore demographic balance, even as political attention remains focused on migration as a stopgap measure.

Recent data suggest the decline is deepening: preliminary analysis for 2024 indicates further drops in birthrates across major cities such as Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, with the national fertility rate remaining at about 1.51.

If the trend continues, the gap between births and death rates will widen, intensifying demands for migration and long-term structural reform.