Focus on the BIG picture.
Monday, Mar 16, 2026
Outside the box.
Only 10% of Europeans believe Ukraine can defeat Russia — poll
A recent EU poll reveals that only 10% of Europeans believe Ukraine can triumph over Russia.
The survey, covering 12 EU nations, showed increasing doubts regarding Ukraine's success due to factors like setbacks in its counteroffensive and possible changes in US policy, including Donald Trump's potential return to the presidency.
The study, titled 'Wars and Elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine', indicated that 20% of respondents expect a Russian victory. These results were released as the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, approaches.
European support for Kyiv remains strong, yet many now perceive a compromise settlement as the most viable end to the conflict. This contrasts with last year's sentiment, where a majority favored Ukraine reclaiming all lost territory.
The authors recommend EU politicians adopt a realistic strategy to pursue peace. Mark Leonard from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), which conducted the poll, suggests EU leaders alter their war narrative to emphasize sustainable peace that benefits Kyiv over outright military victory.
Most Europeans fear a Russian win but doubt Ukraine's military success, and Leonard advises focusing aid discussions on achieving a peace that deters a Russian victory.
Despite this, many Ukrainians reject any peace deal that surrenders territory to Russia. Experts warn that such a deal could encourage further Kremlin aggression, though some argue for prioritizing an end to the conflict.
The January poll also noted that post-withdrawal from Adiivka in the Donetsk region, Moscow gained a significant victory. Attitudes toward a settlement vary across Europe, with Hungary, Greece, and Italy showing the most inclination towards pushing Kyiv for a compromise, while Sweden, Portugal, and Poland had the strongest support for Ukraine reclaiming territories. Views were more divided in Spain, the Netherlands, Germany, and France.
The study, titled 'Wars and Elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine', indicated that 20% of respondents expect a Russian victory. These results were released as the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, approaches.
European support for Kyiv remains strong, yet many now perceive a compromise settlement as the most viable end to the conflict. This contrasts with last year's sentiment, where a majority favored Ukraine reclaiming all lost territory.
The authors recommend EU politicians adopt a realistic strategy to pursue peace. Mark Leonard from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), which conducted the poll, suggests EU leaders alter their war narrative to emphasize sustainable peace that benefits Kyiv over outright military victory.
Most Europeans fear a Russian win but doubt Ukraine's military success, and Leonard advises focusing aid discussions on achieving a peace that deters a Russian victory.
Despite this, many Ukrainians reject any peace deal that surrenders territory to Russia. Experts warn that such a deal could encourage further Kremlin aggression, though some argue for prioritizing an end to the conflict.
The January poll also noted that post-withdrawal from Adiivka in the Donetsk region, Moscow gained a significant victory. Attitudes toward a settlement vary across Europe, with Hungary, Greece, and Italy showing the most inclination towards pushing Kyiv for a compromise, while Sweden, Portugal, and Poland had the strongest support for Ukraine reclaiming territories. Views were more divided in Spain, the Netherlands, Germany, and France.
