Exploring the Impact of a Possible Second Trump Term on Israeli Interests
Many Israeli experts express optimism about the potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, citing benefits for Israeli interests.
During his first term from 2017 to 2021, Trump favored Israel in various ways, which has led to enthusiasm about his possible re-election.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Affairs Minister Gideon Saar were quick to congratulate Trump after his recent claim of victory, highlighting their view of him as a 'true friend of Israel.' Polls show that 66% of Israelis prefer Trump's leadership primarily due to his family connections to Israel and policies benefiting the country.
In his first term, Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital in 2017 and moved the U.S. embassy there the following year.
He acknowledged Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights and dismissed the illegality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, strengthening Israeli confidence in U.S. support.
The Trump administration also facilitated the normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab states, contributing to Israel's regional security.
Israelis expect a second Trump term to further bolster Netanyahu’s leadership, particularly from far-right and settler communities, amid ongoing conflicts and diplomatic challenges.
International relations expert Yonatan Freeman anticipates tougher stances against Iran, aiming for a better security deal for Israel under a Trump presidency.
Military support is another critical area, as Trump's leadership would be perceived as more reliable compared to President Joe Biden.
However, experts like Yossi Mekelberg and Mairav Zonszein caution against Trump's unpredictable nature, given past disputes with Netanyahu and contradictory statements about Israel and Gaza.
Although meeting in July suggested mended relations with Netanyahu, Trump’s stance on Israeli practices toward Palestinians, including the de facto annexation of the West Bank, remains complex.
Ultimately, Israeli analysts are divided over Trump’s potential policies, as strategic alliances and dynamics could challenge unilateral support or actions.
The 2020 Abraham Accords, facilitating ties with Bahrain, Morocco, and the UAE, remain a key consideration in future diplomatic strategies.