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Monday, Jan 06, 2025
Outside the box.
New Orleans Assault Underscores Persistent Threat from Islamic State
A lethal vehicle-ramming attack by a U.S. Army veteran sparks concerns over the extremist group's global comeback and changing strategies.
A vehicular attack in New Orleans during New Year’s celebrations has rekindled fears about the lingering influence of the Islamic State (ISIS).
The perpetrator, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a 42-year-old U.S. Army veteran, drove a truck adorned with a black ISIS flag into a crowd, resulting in 14 deaths.
This solitary attack highlights ISIS’s capability to inspire violence despite losing territory and enduring counterterrorism measures.
Having once controlled vast regions in Iraq and Syria from 2014 to 2017, ISIS has since evolved into a network of independent cells.
Although the group no longer possesses substantial territory, the United Nations estimates its core presence in the Middle East at around 10,000 fighters.
Efforts by the U.S.-led coalition, which include airstrikes and raids, have resulted in the death or capture of numerous ISIS leaders and members.
Still, the group has managed to reorganize, restore its media operations, and renew its external planning, says Brett Holmgren, Acting U.S. Director for the National Counterterrorism Center.
Recent global attacks inspired by ISIS underscore its ongoing threat.
These acts include mass shootings in Russia and bombings in Iran, which resulted in hundreds of deaths in 2024.
The New Orleans attack has drawn attention to the group’s ongoing efforts to inspire violent acts.
Jabbar, described by investigators as '100 percent inspired by ISIS,' had a complicated route to radicalization.
A military veteran who previously served in Afghanistan, he later transitioned into a career as a real estate agent and worked for Deloitte.
FBI officials are investigating how he became an extremist.
His recorded statements mirror ISIS’s ideological constraints, condemning music, drugs, and alcohol.
ISIS has also taken advantage of geopolitical instability to enhance its operations.
The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December and the subsequent power vacuum have escalated concerns about a revival in the area.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken cautioned that ISIS might exploit the instability to rebuild its capabilities, particularly in Syria.
Meanwhile, security analysts have observed the group's growth in Africa, where its Somali faction has strengthened through foreign fighters and extortion revenue.
The group’s affiliate in Afghanistan, ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K), has become a notable threat, capable of coordinating attacks beyond the region.
A United Nations report in 2023 identified ISIS-K as Europe’s most significant external terrorist threat.
The report also highlighted the group's capacity to plan attacks across Asia, the Middle East, and North America.
Despite these threats, experts remain doubtful about ISIS regaining significant territorial control.
H.A. Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, stressed that while the group continues to orchestrate 'random acts of violence,' its ability to control territory akin to its former caliphate is unlikely.
'In Syria or Iraq, it is improbable. In parts of Africa, there might be temporary control, but not as a precursor to a serious comeback,' he said.
The New Orleans attack, along with other global incidents, serves as a reminder of the challenges confronting counterterrorism efforts.
While ISIS’s territorial ambitions have been limited, its ideological reach and capacity to inspire violence persist, posing an ongoing global security threat.
The perpetrator, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a 42-year-old U.S. Army veteran, drove a truck adorned with a black ISIS flag into a crowd, resulting in 14 deaths.
This solitary attack highlights ISIS’s capability to inspire violence despite losing territory and enduring counterterrorism measures.
Having once controlled vast regions in Iraq and Syria from 2014 to 2017, ISIS has since evolved into a network of independent cells.
Although the group no longer possesses substantial territory, the United Nations estimates its core presence in the Middle East at around 10,000 fighters.
Efforts by the U.S.-led coalition, which include airstrikes and raids, have resulted in the death or capture of numerous ISIS leaders and members.
Still, the group has managed to reorganize, restore its media operations, and renew its external planning, says Brett Holmgren, Acting U.S. Director for the National Counterterrorism Center.
Recent global attacks inspired by ISIS underscore its ongoing threat.
These acts include mass shootings in Russia and bombings in Iran, which resulted in hundreds of deaths in 2024.
The New Orleans attack has drawn attention to the group’s ongoing efforts to inspire violent acts.
Jabbar, described by investigators as '100 percent inspired by ISIS,' had a complicated route to radicalization.
A military veteran who previously served in Afghanistan, he later transitioned into a career as a real estate agent and worked for Deloitte.
FBI officials are investigating how he became an extremist.
His recorded statements mirror ISIS’s ideological constraints, condemning music, drugs, and alcohol.
ISIS has also taken advantage of geopolitical instability to enhance its operations.
The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December and the subsequent power vacuum have escalated concerns about a revival in the area.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken cautioned that ISIS might exploit the instability to rebuild its capabilities, particularly in Syria.
Meanwhile, security analysts have observed the group's growth in Africa, where its Somali faction has strengthened through foreign fighters and extortion revenue.
The group’s affiliate in Afghanistan, ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K), has become a notable threat, capable of coordinating attacks beyond the region.
A United Nations report in 2023 identified ISIS-K as Europe’s most significant external terrorist threat.
The report also highlighted the group's capacity to plan attacks across Asia, the Middle East, and North America.
Despite these threats, experts remain doubtful about ISIS regaining significant territorial control.
H.A. Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, stressed that while the group continues to orchestrate 'random acts of violence,' its ability to control territory akin to its former caliphate is unlikely.
'In Syria or Iraq, it is improbable. In parts of Africa, there might be temporary control, but not as a precursor to a serious comeback,' he said.
The New Orleans attack, along with other global incidents, serves as a reminder of the challenges confronting counterterrorism efforts.
While ISIS’s territorial ambitions have been limited, its ideological reach and capacity to inspire violence persist, posing an ongoing global security threat.
