The recent suspension of funding from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has triggered a wave of disruptions in humanitarian and development assistance globally, with experts noting potential advantages for China in the geopolitical landscape.

Former President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend USAID funding, which constitutes approximately 40% of global foreign aid, has led to significant operational challenges.

Reports indicate that employees have been locked out of offices, humanitarian shipments are being delayed, and critical aid that supports health, food security, and education has been halted.

A diverse range of development programs reliant on USAID resources now face alarmingly critical concerns regarding escalating famine and disease.

The functional evolution of USAID, which has been in operation for over 60 years, is now under scrutiny.

Trump's proposal involves merging the agency into the State Department, resulting in workforce reductions and a repurposing of funding priorities.

Analysts are raising concerns that this reorganization undermines a key U.S. geopolitical priority—countering China's growing influence in global development.

Professor Huang Yanzhong from the Council on Foreign Relations stated that the suspension effectively presents China with an opportunity to enhance its soft power initiatives during a period of economic challenges for Beijing.

He indicated that this situation could allow China to revitalize its foreign aid strategies, positioning it favorably in the global competition for influence.

The past several years have seen escalating competition between the U.S. and China in the development sector, notably in the Global South.

In 2018, China established the China International Development Cooperation Agency (China Aid), aiming to streamline and enhance its foreign investment and aid, particularly through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Academic studies, such as one from William & Mary’s Global Research Institute, have estimated that China has extended $1.34 trillion in loans to developing nations from 2000 to 2021, primarily tied to the BRI.

While USAID typically emphasizes partnerships with local organizations, China Aid tends to focus on providing loans for large-scale infrastructure projects.

Both agencies operate with the underlying goal of extending their respective nations' geopolitical influence.

Concerns regarding the ramifications of reduced U.S. aid are becoming increasingly evident, especially in regions such as the Pacific, where China's active engagement has raised alarms among U.S. and allied interests.

Executive Director Melissa Conley Tyler noted that China Aid has already moved to fill funding gaps left by USAID in some cases, signaling a shift in the regional development landscape.

George Ingram, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, emphasized the ideological differences in the development philosophies of the U.S. and China, framing them as contrasting visions of governance and economic development.

Experts also warn that China’s approach to aid may undermine governance and accountability in recipient nations.

Conley Tyler highlighted concerns about the long-term effects of China's development engagements, suggesting that their strategies could create a dependency that diminishes recipients' negotiating power.

As the situation unfolds, there are immediate implications for humanitarian workers and affected communities who are pressing for aid restoration.

Analysts have pointed out that the volatility of U.S. funding raises significant uncertainties about the reliability of assistance in the evolving geopolitical context.

The impacts of these developments are likely to echo within the international development community, as both competition and collaboration strategies become increasingly crucial to address the pressing challenges faced by vulnerable populations across the globe.